INVESTMENT UPDATES

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August 19, 2019

WEEKLY INVESTMENT UPDATE

Key points:

  • Markets remain in “risk-off” mode, with investors heading for safe havens as equity markets test key levels of support.
  • Industrial production data gave little cause to cheer last week, but a broad set of Australian data is indicating gradual improvement.
  • This week will see central banks in the spotlight at the annual Jackson Hole convention, it will be the first opportunity for the Fed to respond to the latest round of American tariffs.

 

 

 

 

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August 12, 2019

WEEKLY INVESTMENT UPDATE

Key points:

  • More sharemarket volatility highly likely, especially in Australia.

  • UK economy contracted by 0.2% in the second quarter and could slip into recession even before the UK leaves the EU without a trade agreement on 31st October.

  • Unlike Q4 2018, central banks are predisposed to ease monetary policy.

  • Short-term, the Australian dollar may weaken, longer-term the outlook remains positive.

  • Australian equities look especially vulnerable to a pull-back.

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August 5, 2019

WEEKLY INVESTMENT UPDATE

Key points:

  • US imposed further tariffs on Chinese imports last week, causing an increase in volatility

  • US earnings results and Friday’s labour report have done little to offset the negative mood

  • Further global monetary easing in the months ahead now seems highly likely

  • The RBA meets this week and its widely expected they will hold interest rates

 

 

 

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July 29, 2019

WEEKLY INVESTMENT UPDATE

Key points:

  • Equity markets continue to rise on earnings exceeding expectations

  • Local market broadly ignoring soft (future) Australian outlook for earnings and interest rates

  • Budget standoff avoided in the US

  • Trade and Brexit still remain as potential causes of volatility

 

 

 

 

 

 

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July 22, 2019

WEEKLY INVESTMENT UPDATE

Key points:

  • Global economy doing reasonably well: Central banks are becoming gradually more accommodative. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates at the end of July, the ECB is expected to cut on Thursday and more stimulus from China. Following recent cuts, Australia is less likely to cut in August, provided the global economy stays on track.

  • Possibility of negative shock looms: Chance of a US-China trade deal seems optimistic, and the recent escalation of Iran tensions could lead to a sharp spike in oil prices.

  • This week US earnings reporting season continues, Congress will hear evidence from Mueller, Japan expected to re-elect PM Abe and the UK will most likely see Boris Johnson confirmed as the next Prime Minister.

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July 15, 2019

WEEKLY INVESTMENT UPDATE

Key points:

  • Corporate reporting season kicks off in the US – Analysts increasingly expecting low, or even negative, earnings growth;

  • Iranian tensions escalate, and a US-China deal seems no more likely than a month ago.

  • Post-election boost in economic confidence seems short-lived as RBA governor Lowe appears in Canberra helping the Federal Treasurer pressure States to spend more.

  • And still, the market pushes new highs locally and globally.

 

 

 

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